BASED ON THE POLL WHERE SOME VISITIRS FELT THAT THE RATING CAN BE IMPROVED.BASED ON THAT AND REVIEW, THE WEIGHTAGES HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO 62.5 % FOR THE HORSE, 17.5 FOR THE JOCKEY, TRAINER AT 10 % ( SAME AS BEFORE), DISTANCE @ 7.5 % AND HANDICAP AT 2.5 %.LETS SEE HOW THIS WORKS
THANKS
SWAMY
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12 comments:
i hope expiereienced peoples suggestions will work and it works well.seenu
THANK YOU. I STUDIED THE DIFFERENCES.THE NEW SYSTEM SEEMS BETTER.THE RATING POINTS DO CHANGE.LETS HOPE FOR THE BEST
SWAMY
I would suggest rather then changing a few things add a few things.... i.e speed of race in first 2 forlongs and the last 2 forlongs... trainer to jockey sucess rate..... etc just a suggestion rest is up to you.
regards'
T
guruji,
i have a suggestion here.
62.5 % for horse,
10 % for distance,
15 % for jockey,
7.5 % for handicap,
5 % for trainer.
i feel this way because any horse in with a chance, with any trainer, does not reduce his chances thanks to a mediocre trainer.
where as the other factors directly affect the horses chances of winning.
regards,
rajesh.
RAJESH YOU HAVE A VALID POINT.FOR THE THREE - FOUR DAYS WILL TRY AND DO BOTH AND KEEP YOU INFORMED.
TIGER HAS ALSO GIVEN A VERY GOOD SUGGESTION BUT THE PROBLEM IS I DONT HAVE A DATA BANK YET ON THIS.I WILL STAR MAKING THE DATA BANK AND TRY IT OUT.
THANKS A LOT FOR THE POSITIVE RESPONSES
SWAMY
mumbai opening odds
1- gusti egli 9\2
3- premier diva 2.1
4- opera royal 9\4
2nd race
1- the right man 11\2
2-lovely feelings 5\2
3- consula 19\10
3rd race
3- fighting fantasy 5\1
4- insite soul 37\10
8- blue blaze 85\100
11-promme de terre7\2
4th race
4- dynamic cat 7\4
5-mstaro war 6\1
6- call to arm 6\4
5th race
3 flaming arrow 7\2
5-babeinthewoods 11\10
6th race
1generalisemo 7\2
5 athena 5\4
9-dance maestro 5\1
7th race
1 blazing arrow 6\1
2 bonny light 3\1
5- multicultural 18\10
Dear Mr.Swamy,
The idea of Mr. Tiger’s suggestion is to find out the initial pace and the finishing pace of a race. There would not be much problem in finding out the initial pace but finding the finishing pace of some races poses problem especially when the commentator calls a horse ”to the right of your picture”.
Abel Initial pace is the opening speed in some racebooks they have split sectionals of every 200 mts i.e 200 in 13..400-25...600-38...-800-49...1000-59.5
If you can read the initial pace that is in the fist 400 correctly like in the above example first 200 in 13 seconds the second in 12(25-13) the third in 13 (38-25) 4th in 11(49-38) and 5th in 10.5 (59.5-49)
This is the actual pace of the race split up in sectionals and not of a Particular horse there are many factors but I am not writhing a book so will make it quick..
Spliting secionals gives you a much broader view i.e If the winner of this race won start to finish can he go 200 meters more in his next run... The answer is yes because he made the initial pace which should average approx-12.5 sec per 200 mts and at the finish was still accelerating..... at the finish when you compare the last 2 secionals i.e 11 sec and then 10.5 sec....
There are different calulations on how different distances are worked on but unfortunately I am not a excel or database genius to prepare these logs...
Because I dont have acess to secional timings as I can get them online and dont get the race book as I dont leave in India I find it difficult to read the pace of the race.
Hope my input has helped if you have any further Questions let me know.
Regards
Tiger, you are talking about the “Time for each 200” mentioned in the race books. I don’t know as to how they arrive at the split timings. I checked these timings with that of the video clock timings, but they don’t match. Years ago, I did base my selections depending on these split timings, but had burnt my fingers umpteen times. Stopping the video clock for the individual runners at 600 mts and noting down the timings had worked wonders. By this way you can always match the speed of a horse competing with each other. Sectional timings have rarely worked. It may kindly be noticed that a horse gains momentum during the initial distance and loses speed at the finishing distance. In other words, arithmetically the initial speed of a horse is more than the finishing speed. To our eyes it appears that the horse is flying at the finish and we think that the horse is gaining speed but the split timings would reveal that the horse is “flying” at a lower speed when compared to its initial speed.
Abel Speed handicapping is one of the best way to judge the pace of a race not the pace of a horse.... This the first step that will tell you which of the horses are contenders and which are pretenders....
Send me your email I will email you a example. You will be plesenly surprised...
Tiger My e-mail id is abeldraj@hotmail.com.Get ready for a healthy discussion with the pace of a race vs pace of a horse.Please mail me your e-mail id also.
SINCE ABEL IS DOING THE PACE / INITIAL & FINAL TIMINGS THERE IS NO POINTIN ME ALSO DOING IT.MAYBE WE MATCH ABELS & MY RATING AND ARRIVE AT THE CONSENSUS BETS
SWAMY
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