First race :
Jockey Jagadeesh has not yet opened his account in bangalore and is entrusted to ride OPPRIMO purely for the odds.
Trainer Manohar gets only the the rejects and hence one cant judge Muscial Paradise by the bloodline or tracks.
Sikander E Alam is the only horse with some record but alas has not been seen in the tracks since the previous run in hyderabad in March ,08.
Considering the limited options for picking the Winner , better to wait till race time to get a feel of the flow of funds and then pick the winner.
One can consider Two to Tango or Panjury for a place bet on the assumption that one of the above three fancied runners would not make it.
Second Race :
Telemacchus : may upset .Keep an eye.
Calming Influence is well bred and showing out in the morning tracks.Would be the favorite and can oblige.
Pinaakini : Most consistent runner in bangalore ,yet to pick up a race.May at best place.
She's Spectacular : Regular in tracks , may be tried though choice of Jockey is not very encouraging.
Sheer Gold : Not here.
Standing Ovation : Good 4 th with work jockey.Has been judiciously prepared and with APPU to guide the fortunes can make it a start to finish affair.
@ this blog : We have to wait for the opinion of the Horse's retained TIPSTER ABEL before deciding.
My Choice : She's Spectacular - Each way : Telemacchus - Place
Horses 2/3/5 are all owned by Owners from hyderabad and hence i have not considered the 2 fancied runners.Only One of the TWO fancied runners may do well due to this factor.
Third Race :
Gampu : carrying top weight , finished 5 th in last outing.No track work but one can take a chance bet as it is from a gambling stable.
Word to Word : facile Winner but handicap against the horse this time around.
Royal Artist : No track work since 10/05.Otherwise Good Horse with a powerful rider.
Badda Rupaiyya : Should do well with the positive switch in Rider.
King of Good times : Best bred horse in the race and at tidy handicap.
Live it up : R Marshall . Chances of Winning are negligable.
My Choice : Badda Rupaiyya - each way and Gampu Place.
Negative bet on Jodi of King of Good times and Live it up if the odds are good enough.
Fourth race :
Leagues Apart : Impressive second to All my Colors but the top weight and distance may prove to be too much.Avoidable for WIN.
A Run to Remember : Not here.
Allegro : has been coming into the frame only in the closing stages over shorter distances.At this handicap can do well.
Miss Pukka : ?????
Lucky Gold Star : Ignore the previous run which was too sharp for comfort.Should easily place.If Pinaakini places one can have a roll bet on this horse for place.
My Choice : Allegro - Place and a Negative bet on Leagues Apart @ even and below.
Fifth Race :
First Four Horses may not be possible for place due to choice of riders/top handicap.
Bastian Bay : May at best place though the Horse has the merit to WIN.The choice of Jockey , the Draw and the weight may prove to be a dampener.
Alchesaye :Rider was unable to do much in previous outing when
Luckynumberslevin WON at lucrative odds.May do well with the retained rider of the stable.
Milford : Tracking well.May only place.
Apertini : Did all the running in race 52 which EL Gordo WON .The change in equipment and the handicap may see it through.
Snob Value : has been systematically brought down by using the services of some mediocre riders.
My Choice : Each way bet on Aperitini and place bet on Milford.Negative on Jodi of Bastian Bay and Alchesaye.
Sixth race :
Carte Blancehe ; Finishing on well on debut.Should be a force to reckon with.
Raptor Force : Tracking exceedingly well.Earlier sibling Renascent has done well.A winner on debut ?? Not likely.If it Wins i would be happy for my friend.
Spandau Bullet : Last run was suggestive.Should easily place by default.
Enduring Star : Failed favorite . Not friendly stable.As it is likely to open as the
1 st or 2 nd Favorite . it is not a attractive betting option due to instability.May Win / can WIN but definitely not worth a WIN bet.
Redshift : Upset .
My choice : Carte Blance : WIN / SHP. Spandau Bullet : Place
The favorite be it Enduring Star or Raptor Force would be a good negative bet.
Seventh Race ;
Regal Ransom , Super Sonic , Vijaysamrat and Splendid Power are the 4 horses which are capable of Winning or coming into place contention.
I would go with Splendid Power for Place bet as Picking Winner amongst these 4 is difficult due to the heavy impost on the First 3 Horses.
Last Race : Bold Reply / Our Little Savage : Not here.Good negative bets.
Crackerjack : intent to do well is seen by the choice of Jockey and positive change of equipment.But Looks difficult in this set.
mac : Lisa Jones : Definitely not for WIN.
Ciboney : has the services of a top jockey.has some good form to go by.Can strike.
Powerful dreams : has not been tested beyond 1200.May at best come 3 rd.
Mystic Star : Will place by default.
South Paradise : may suprise.
Jersey Power : back to original stable.Looking extremely good on handicap.But against so many contenders ???
My Choice : Ciboney - Win / Shp and South Paradise - Place
Negative bets on Mystic Star / Mac / Crackerjack if they are installed as Favorites.
Place roll for the day : Badda Rupaiyya / Allegro / Apertini / Spandau Bullet / Splendid Power and Ciboney.
Good Luck
Shyam
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Friday, June 20, 2008
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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
4 comments:
Horses retained tipster Abel G? Nice to see the lighter side hope it does not stoke another blog debate...lol
Hi...thought I'll give my views as well...
1 - Musical Paradise shud win & Royal Bank should place
2 - Calming influence win & Standing ovation place
3 - King if good times win
4 - Leagues Apart win & Miss pukka place
5 - Easy should place
6 - Enduring star shud win easily & Raptor force might follow
7 - Power punch place
8 - Ciboney win & cracker jack place
All the Best!!!
STANDING OVATION has been judiciously prepared after his last run.Was warming up late in his last run.1200 metres appears to be more pet than this 1100.With Appu guiding his fortunes,I am bogged down by the numbers to proclaim it as a good bet.
I don't like REGAL RANSOM carrying top weight.Should not be in 1,2,3 as per "loadman's theory".
Let's see what happens.
After seen all the comments and getting a feel of the morning odds my place roll is as follows :
1.Standing Ovation.Should place as it is showing out in tracks.
2.Badda Rupaiyya.Tough set but should be there due to jockey.
3.Allegro .Purely as 4/9 runners have no chance whatsoever of placing and hence negative.
Good day to
One more Combination :
1.Gampu .Chance bet
2.Spandue Bullet .Iam 100 % sure of the place.
3.Lucky Gold star. mainly since it has travelled the distance.
4.South Paradise.Last race is a disaster as there are too many contenders.So why not a long shot ?
Good day ,
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