I thought it fit to post the review of the races held over today as this post might get lost during the coming week due to the daily racing activity.
Saturday
1.One had nothing to beat and was backed One sided with none of the other horses receiving any support.These Odds must have been the lowest in BTC after Set Alight's .35 . It was backed from .70 over night to .40 at race time.It won very convincingly from Spicy Star and Fantastic Flame.Support for Gris Rapide was unwarranted as Spicy Star was preferred choice who did well to occupy the 2nd spot.
Took a risk by eating the favorite at .60 and lost in the process.As suggested I backed Spicy Star each way and the Dividend reduced the Losses incurred on eating ONE.
2.The race had an open look and Affirmed Crown's opening odds as per web sites of 18/10 was not visible as it opened at 2.5 and went to 3.25.Some support came in for Chimerique @ 5.25 which was backed down to 4 to 1.Also some support came for Glorious Princess towards the close.
Chimerique in spite of the long break since last race run Won with a measure of authority thereby proving its class.Likely to be shifted to Pune.Can definitely pick a few more races and finally land in class 1.
Glorious Princess played the role of the bridesmaid for the n th time but was not disgraced in defeat.Will pick up a race in the main Mysore season.
Backed Glorious Princess each way and as the WIN / SHP odds were nearly the same had some some profit.
3.Lady banks the well bred filly , got the better of Long shot Worth a Million in the home strech and then won effortlessly though fire of Joy was seen moving on well towards the closing Stages of the race.Could have WON if given a quality ride.This is what happens when there is conflict of interest as DaraShah trains MAM horses in Mysore.
As the favorite was sporting Steel Shoes I had a negative bet and lost out in the process.Backed a small amount on Word for Word and Worth a Million and that sort of covered my losses.Fire of Joy was a Losing bet.
4.Cotswold Arms HAD TO WIN considering the fact that the OWNERS had come all the way from Mumbai/ PUNE.The odds on the first Two horses were nearly the same with Angelique also receiving support .With the combination Dhariwal / Shroff , the odds on Arturo drifted and the others were all quoted at 15 and above.
As expected Suraj Narredu ensured that the Horse fly jumped and lost some distance at the start.This is usually DONE whenever the Horse is not meant to DO WELL in the race.Meaning RACES fixed before hand.
Friendly fire did all the running and gave way for COTSWOLD Arms who was ridden way off the pace initially.After the favorite took charge the others tried to catch up giving the impression of Trying to WIN but the SHOW was evident.
Backed friendly Fire for WIN / SHP as suggested.However also backed Jodi of Arturo and Angelique and LOST.
5.Tomsk was the Rage and not many were looking beyond this horse.The Kolkatta import Lycia Falcon did receive some support but Safari was constant throughout.
The Two Horses from the stables of Neil did all the running before the stable fancied Horse Celestial Son gave way to Mighty Heart.Safari who was close by accelerated and went past the other Horses who were stranded.Tomsk was asked to do too much in the straight and the strain of 4 Race Runs in 2 Months showed up eventually as it ended 4 th just edging Flair Queen.Lycia Falcon ran on well towards the close to finish a decent 3 rd.Safari has the handicap in favor and iam not sure if at level weights a similar performance can be expected.Mighty Heart ran a mighty race and can WIN in the near future.
Tomsk might be campaigned in Pune as Mysore may not be its forte.
had a negative bet on Tomsk but lost it by backing Celestial Son.A small each way bet on Mighty heart purely for Jockey merit ensured small surplus.
6.the most open race of the day with all Horses offering EVEN money for PLACE.
Adorabella and Read My Mind received some support for unknown reasons and Noble Guest was also in the odds.Some support came in for CALLISTA at 15 to 1 and as most of the Horses had a chance bookies were liberal with the ODDS.Panchakshari was backed in the Tote for Place.
As expected Panchakshari did all the front running with Callista staying in the rails.Ryan Marshall on Callista got the opening near the 300 metre mark and took the Horse to a well deserved WIN over the late finishing Noble Guest who was carrying 61 kgs.the Best Horse was in fact REBELLIOUS which was at one point some 100 metres behind but came with a flourish to edge out Panchakshari for the 3 rd spot.
Panchakshari and Rebellious will definitely pick a race in Mysore and Noble Would do well when the Money is on the Horse.
Backed Callista Each way and for the First time Ryan Delivered a PETI to me courtesy the Exacta Pool.Was definitely a Good each way bet at 15 and 3.
7.Touch of Magic completed the formalities though Prince Norbert at one stage looked like taking center stage.
Having eaten at morning odds of 1.25 , I knew that the race was Over when Touch was backed down to .65.Losing bet could have been avoided but i had fancied Voices for India to do well.Ran miserably.Definitely not worth a bet in bangalore.
You Beauty was running after a WEEK and ended a BAD 4 th.
Played Royal Artist which was withdrawn .
8.Last race ; Sunny Land had positive change of equipment after change of stables and with a Tough Rider Christopher astride WON very convincingly.Super Sonic was beaten fair and square and Ballerina Girl was not sighted.
Marienalla did well to finish 3 rd and could WIN a race run over 1100.
Had some minor bets for place which did not come through.
OVERALL a Good day as Callista came through along with a few other PLACE bets at good odds.
Sunday :
The well backed Last Sammurai with the help of some powerful riding skills displayed by Christopher WON this race with ease from the fast finishing Sunny Colors.The odds on Excellent ability went up so dramatically that the fate was known much before the actual race and in the end it finished a dismal 4 th.In the tote the Place odds was more than the WIN odds at the start and that in itself conveyed the result.There was some support for Jersey rock who was better placed on the scales vis a vis the Winner but all that He could do was to finish 3 rd.
After seeing the odds on Excellent ability drift , i just Ate the Jodi at .70 and went for a small place bet on Red Shift to cover the LOSS.Was not interested in Jersey due to the odds.In the end lost both ways and not a good begining.Signs of things to come ??
Originality HACKED the field mercilessly and displayed its CLASS .Should easily Pick up sprint races even in class 1 based on this performance.The others were just outclassed.
Had a negative bet at .92 though I was not negative about this in my comments.Backed perfect rhythm each way after seeing lots of swimming activity and also considering that it was a WINNER in same class.Well the Dividend did not cover the Negative bet and here i was wondering what had gone wrong.
ABS FABS was negative from the very begining and though i had eaten at .90 and it closed at 1.25 I did not even think of transfering a portion of the bet.In the end it paid off as Greens WON as she LIKED with the rider looking back repeatedly for the others to catch up.the favorite was fortunate to end 3 rd and Forever mark did well to finish a credible 2 nd .Forever Mark was available at 2 to 1 for place and I thought it was a good bet .But confidence levels were low after 2 straight losses and I backed long Shot Ahira and lost out a portion of the Negative bet.But was happy as Losses were down to reasonable levels.
The next race saw Grand Madame being backed down to .55 from .85 ( had a negative bet at this level ) and it was looking like one more LOSS as most of the other Horses did not find any support in the RING.In the end Grand Madame lost the race at the Post and the first 5 runners had just 2 lenghts separating them all.A close call but a bad race.
Some activity was seen in TOTE on Thunders Roar and though I had said that Jagadesh was a bad rider , took a small chance bet purely for the reason that the beaten Horse Last Samurai picked up the first race.Delighted at the outcome as it was a double payout.
BTC Cup race was as open as it could be.Diego Riveria odds opened at 1.70 and drifted to 1.90 before being backed down to 1.60.None of the others had support at any level as it was a free for all situation.The initial tote odds on Woman on Top was 16 to 1 which reflected the confidence levels of the Connexions.Even Badge of Gold was at higher odds.Rhapsidion Snow was also above 10 to 1.
The Winner of the Super Mile in Hyderabad and the good 3 rd to Noble Prince helped in garnering support even as punters were discussing the grand send off to Shroff.
In the end Rhapsidion Snow in his usual customary front running role played it to perfection and succeeded in causing a big Upset.this Horse had the measure of Diego in mumbai over 1800 when Spinoza had WON .But in the subsequent outing had dislodged the rider enabling Diego to WIN at 12 to 1.Had WON a race in Hyderabad in the invitation.Was given a bad ride when finishing 3 rd to Lion Heart and the subsequent run was misleading as the rains affected the performance.
Diego Riveria could not match strides and was happy to keep the 2 nd spot ahead of the late finishing Splendid Surprise which had not displayed this potential in previous runs.The others just completed the TASK assigned except for Romantic Getaway who was given a horrendous ride by Alford and came from way off the pace to finish 4 th.
Ate Jodi of Diego and Coral as well as Diego and Romantic Getaway.Had a place bet on recommended horse Elusive Study and a each way bet on Rhapsidion Snow as the indications on other Horses were negative.Repeat of previous race as had the Double Payment.
The odds on Appertain drifted from.80 to 1.60 thereby conveying that all was not as GOOD as expected.It looked like the DOOSRA was being expected from Dad's stables through Badda Rupaiya.But in the end it was HIDALGO which ran away with the race pipping the fancied Appertini at the post.This Horse was backed at 18 to 1 in the ring and subsequently Tote odds came down to 80 as Bookies transfered a portion of the accepted bets .Badd Rupaiya came with a late effort but was lacking the finishing touch required.Shisham provided some reflief for Ghatala and Powerful Dreams which was also fancied went off BOARD.
Hidalgo can repeat even in higher class as the Horse is coming back to earlier form.The weight told on Appertini ( as well as the ODDS.)
Suraj Narredu had a Miserable day ( in winning not Monetarily ) as also ALFORD.
backed Damgood each way and lost out as Md Shoaib was not in his elements.
Trafalgar Square was consistenly backed and did provide some relief for APPU.Can repeat again in similar set.Whisper Valley was backed from 5.50 to 3.25 but enabled the bookies in cutting short the losses.Cant see these Horses WINNING unless there is some decent track work.Coming from the worst stable in bangalore it was expected.
Wanted to back Whsiper at 5.50 but all of a sudden the odds crashed to 3.50 and as it did not fulfill my criteria of Minimum odds 4 to 1 i backed OUT and insted played Corus each way ( long shot ) and also had a small bet on Princess Emily which was a very consistent performer .Well no losses as the Shp / Place payment was decent enough.
Last race saw some support for Refresh towards the close in the Betting and Christopher proved that once HIS money is IN there is NO going back.Won comfortably though South Paradise came on well in the last 100 mts.Anoosheek finished ahead of Star News who was disapointing.Refresh is capable of WINNING in the original class 3 ( if the horse is backed ) as this was a WIN on demotion.Dante;s Peak coming to tracks after some 6 months also received some support which was misplaced.
A good day again courtesy Diego Riveria , Rhapsidion Snow , Thunders Roar and Abs Fabs.
Comments and feed back welcome.
Shyam
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With Respect to speculative investment our selections are based on a scientific rationale with understanding of the "HUMAN FACTOR" intervention.
Investing based on the opinions and suggestions made is always fraught with risk as neither the opinion maker/ author nor the viewer have any scope of controlling events in speculation.
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Sunday, July 20, 2008
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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
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