OBSERVATIONS , RATINGS AND SELECTIONS

We have three distinct information.

a) Comments -- Relating to Jockey merit, Trainer merit, General win % & Place %, Avoidables,Vet treatments, suitable distance etc..

b)Ratings - These are based on factors of timing, handicap advantage, relative Jockey Merit and relative trainer merit & average distance run.The rating is as per a predetermined formula and gives the percentage chance for a horse to win

c) Selections - Based on the comments , Ratings and a study of trackwork,Immediate previous run timings and average timings, the same is finalised.

It may so happen that a horse which is not shortlisted in the comments may be rated higher or may have the best Immediate performance.

When we are mentioning all the factors in the write up, it may confuse or even mislead, as one friend had pointed out in one of his comments.

Therefore, i desire to separate the two issues.

Along with the selections, the topic of dicussion will be only the timing and immediate past runs.

The comments, best performing distance ,overall win % , Place % etc. will be posted earlier.

The avoidables are an Indicator of the Trainer / Jockey performance overall / current season.Some trainers may be in the " Place" category but may be avoidable while some are in the lower" OK " category and may not be avoidable.

It is not that the avoidable trainer / jockey will not score.The chances are low and they generally do not score as 1st/ 2nd / 3rd favourites but usually at longer odds only.

I have data atleast for three- four seasons for each centre and base my statements on these parameters.

The avodable trainer/ Jockey as per me are those with less than 4.5 % win / 15 % place( Current season if they had 10 or more mounts & Overall if the mounts have been lesser)

The "WIN" jockey is one with more than 15 % win and a "PLACE" Jockey is one with win less than 15 % but place higher than 25%."OK" Jockeys are the ones with win % greater than 5 % and place more than 12.5 %.The ones with lower % are in the "BAD" category.

Similar ratings are done for trainers too but the cut off % are alightly different.

We have an example of a trainer - Pratap Kamath- who was the only Mysore Based trainer who was in win category but a continuous use of "BAD" jockeys has got him to " PLACE" category and at this rate he may go to "OK" category.

Another Example is of trainer Nityanand who is in place category and is in AVOIDABLE list for win.

With two separate postings, hope clarity prevails.

Swamy