1.Gris Rapide : not here.
2.Spicy Star : Was very impressive in previous outing .Has been regular in swimming tracks and is the One to watch out for.
6.One : Is expected to have more support from Punters and with M Narredu to guide the Filly's fortunes the Odds are not likely to be very attractive.May WIN but is it worth a Bet. Odds will decide that.
8.Fantastic Flame : After the mock race with Work jockey is ready to Strike.
Choice is : Spicy Star each way.
1.Rapton Force : Faraway second to Enduring Star. Tracking well has a Good chance to score.
2.Affirmed Crown : Well bred Horse which did finish a credible 4 th to Succeeding Star when ridden by weak jockey.Should do well.
3.Firezone :Looks a bit difficult here though a upset cant be ruled out.
5.Glorious Princess : ideal Trip after the sprint runs.Will definitely place.
6.Chimerique :Long layoff and Ryan Marshall are both indicators that the Horse may not be extended tomorrow.Could be readied for Pune season.
7.Sabari : flashed on late in race 100.Can do well over the extended trip.
Choice is : Glorious Princess Each way.
Sabari Place.
2.Lady banks : Best bred filly in this race.However the usage of STEEL shoes is an indicator ( not conclusive ) that Horse may not be ready.Earlier run with Shakti Singh was suggestive.
3.Baffled : Not here.
6.Clouseau :After made to participate over longer distances , being broought back to 6 furlongs.Can do well.
7.Rain Man : Last outing GAMBLE came through as the bunch was very weak.Not here i suppose.
8.Fire of Joy : Was not tried in race 109 though 4 th place indicates a good run.As the Trainer and Son are being suspended , all Horses from the Stables will be in the Money.
12.Word to Word : May place at this attractive handicap.
Choice is : Fire of Joy WIN / SHP
Word to Word Place
2.Cotswold Arms : distance and handicap seems to be aginst the filly.
3.Arturo : after 2 suggestive runs seems fit but with C.Alford One cant take chances.Entirely avoidable.
4.Angelique : Impressive Winner may repeat.
6.Friendly Fire : Will definitely PLACE.
Choice is : Friendly Fire.
1.Tomsk : Tremendous turn of foot seen on all three earlier outings.Looking to annex the Horse of the Season Trophy .Has beaten quality Horses earlier but looks like too much is being expected in the short term.This being the 4 th Run in the season , if the races have not taken a TOLL on the Horse it can oblige.
2.Celestial Son : Should place.
4.Lycia Falcon : not in my radar.
5.You're Wonderful: Non Winner can at best place.
6.Sugriv : Big time Gamble failed in Bella Coola race and objection was overruled.Still a maiden competing against WINNERS.So it looks very difficult.
7.Flair Queen : Place only.
8.Safari : After 2 expensive failures beat some ordinary Horses recently.But is tracking well and has improved a lot since last season.Is the ONE which can upset the applecart.
Choice is : Celestial Son ; Small bet for WIN good bet for Place.
Flair Queen : Place bet purely for Jockey.
5.Rebellious : last run with work jockey was on expected lines.Can shine here in this open set.
7.Adorabella : Sorry ,not at this weight.
8.Zafar : Speedy Horse , if the others are not upto the mark can RUN away to glory.
9.Tina's Triumph : Not here.
10.Read my mind : Owner has a lucrative double last week.There is positive change in equipment but my understanding is that this filly needs DISTANCE.Avoidable unless there is some information to the contrary.
11.CALLISTA : Jockey is some one who is universally disliked.But at times can suprise all of us.
Choice is : Callista Each way and Rebellious PLACE.
1.Touch of Magic ; was the bookies delight with RAJA RAO some time back.Can return the favor.
3.You beauty :Lost to some B class Horses last week.not possible to recover form unless last run was RIGGED.
5.Voice of India ; looking fit and the belated effort in race 79 indicates that Horse might relish the extra distance.
7.Royal Artist : SHOULD EASILY PLACE.
11.Prince Norbert : may at best come 3 rd.
Choice is : Voice of India each way and Royal Artist Place.
3.Auchinlech : may place as the opposition is ????
7.Ballerina Girl : Trainer has 4 Good mounts for the day.If 2 succeds then IGNORE this horse.If only ONE obliges , then may be tried,though distance seems sharp.
8.Satin Wood : dont be suprised if Shakti Singh WINS .The Horse is good but as is the case with trainer Dominic , if the Money is ON then it will be tried else would just be a participant.
9.Sunny Land : After change of stables this is the First RUN with positive intent as there is positive change in equipment.Is good enough to tackle this set but Trainer does not oblige with favorites.
10.Super Sonic : is fit and ready to strike.
Choice is : Auchinlech place & Super Sonic WIN/ Shp
Place Kainchi :
1.Spicy Star / Glorious Princess / Word to Word.
2.Friendly Fire / Flair Queen / Callista / Auchinlech.
WIN Kainchi : pick among
Raptor Force / Fire of Joy / Angelique / Safari / Voice of India / Super Sonic.
Tough call today for WINNERS and the Odds convey the same.
Would recommend these for place :
Glorious Princess , Fire of Joy , Callista and Royal Artist.Good day ,
SHYAM
PS : these Common Owner Horses could all be tried ( not neccesarily successful ) Celestial Son / Glorious Princess / Adorabella / Sunny Land
Posts
6 comments:
BABU JI
You are contradicting your own rule here. You are backing Spicy Star E/W but the jockey sucks 1 placed out of 14 mounts this season. In other races u don't even judge horses class down with sucky riders than how come Spicy Star.
I don't understand how you can back A Velu on Spicy Star but not
K Alam on Panchakshari
Shyam ,"Lycia Falcon : not in my radar" go one run back and compare the same day timings with Tomnsk , also look at the current track work,looks like this horse shud be in 1/2 , I however donot know anything about the traning capacities of R Alford, can you help me in that ? -Aswin Patel
WC : Would be all the more happy if the real name is mentioned as you have raised some important points.
In the first race , my reasoning is that Horses 3/4/5/7 have no chance whatsoever.So leaving aside the favorite ONE , I had limited options .Gris Rapide has run with some Vb horses where as Spicy Star was once fancied in the race in which Man United WON.Earlier finished a
2 nd to ON A ROLL.
I do admit Velu is a BAD rider but he did give a good forward ride on My friend Paul earlier.I see a lot of swimming activity and hence Fitness is not an issue.Well the Horse may fail but I am a ODDS player and i don t even dream of playing fancied Horses.As far as Panchakshari is concerned there were 3 factors.One Trainer Suspended ,secondly
handicap and thirdly TOO MANY quality CONTENDERS.
My views may go wrong and i do accept that but this is my reasoning.
Shyam
Aswin ,
I did check on your observation , but primarily Horses coming from KOLKATTA are not good enough though exceptions can be there.Discarded Horses which migrate from bangalore , hyderabad , Mumbai and even Mysore WIN easily in Kolkatta.Hence quality is an ISSUE.I did check the earlier runs in Home Center but the Horses it BEAT / it Lost were all pretty ordinary.
Well it is a youngster but if you see race 62 , except PortpatricK which WON on demotion the others have done nothing much.Thereby conveying that LYCIA FALCON placed by default on that day.
There are TWO strong CONTENDERS : Tomsk and Safari and racing LOGIC suggests that both should place though it can go the other way also.That leaves us with ONE SPOT and Neil and Babu Rao have some good Horses and even SUGRIV is no push over.Tomsk has picked 3 races , Celestial and Mighty heart 2 each and Safari and Lycia Falcon 1 each.Safari though lost to Fleeting ARROW.
So it would be too much to expect from a Horse which has JUST WON 1 race in KOLKATTA .
On the positive side Good Hard Task Master and if TOMSK is Tired then Lycia can do well.
My 2 cents , but please do follow your gut feeling and bet .
I still believe PANCHAKSHARI will place, I am not a fan of it, but having gone close in its last race (less than 6 lengths defeat), also its a front runner. Class
Down, I am definitely gonna have a small bet Rs1000 on Tote place only, as there are 12 runners, and we can get 4 places.
I also believe Tomsk will win, and lift the Best Horse trophy which otherwise will go to Set Alight (only two horses to score HAT TRICK this season).
Shyam I doubt Spicy Star will be tried,N Drashah in (S)plate never perform...hence avoidable in the place Kaichi Adorabella is better Value from the same stable...and if you want a value place bet in the first race then Dont Ignore Chilli Choclate...
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