Sunday, July 20, 2008

BTC CUP Open affair.

a few Owners managed races on saturday.May not repeat on SUNDAY.


Choice of Bets would vary if race time odds are not favorable.

My Choice is not definitely the best horse in the race.Kindly note that it is just my preference based on the odds.


1.Sunny Colors ; not here.
2.Last Sammurai ; big time gamble failed when Thunders Roar beat this colt at the post.With the penalty seems a lost cause at this weight.
3.Burning Ambitions ; Lucky winner in previous outing.But with Chethana , i would prefer to SKIP.
4.Snow Prince ;can do well.If in the place odds are reasonable One could take a chance.
5.Excellent Ability ; bred to stay ,has always met one better.Should do well.Owner picked up race on saturday and is in line for a double.
6.Red Swift ; point with all b class trainers is they rarely let the Horse do well upto its potential.Either a bad rider or lack of fitness is the issue.The Horse has the capability to WIN but not sure if it will be tried.
8.Jersey Rock :Has the CLASS to WIN.Is better placed on handicap compared to Last Sammurai.Definitely a good each way BET.

Choice is : Jersey Rock


Top of the Class :
Has run with much better company.Can upset.
Sugar Blaze :
no consistency in performance from this stable.
Afea :
not in this set.
On a Roll ;
Was SHOCKED at the post by Long Shot LAVA.Looks difficult here.
Originality ;
Chettinad Stud Stakes ??? No track work , but some activity seen in swimming.Not worth a BET at the odds offered.
Asiaticus :
Favorably placed on handicap.Last run with top weight was forward.if the same is repeated a LIVE threat.

Choice is : Asiaticus and Top of the Class.

Unsucceded Star : a WIN on Debut is very unlikely.
Edmondo :Tracking well , keep an eye.
Forever Mark ; Will definitely place .If the odds are lucrative Good each way bet.
Abs Fabs : Sorry not here.Looked outstanding in the earlier run but that was against a different set of opponents but was given a terrible ride.John cant handle it any better.
Ahira : Sibling of Sugar Blaze which in class 2.Last ride was pathetic due to relative jockey merit.Lots of track work after previous run.
Greens : is superior but at times jockey is found lacking in that extra effort.

Choice is AHIRA and Forever Mark.


This race we have only 7 Horses and only 2 place DIVIDEND.

Aggassiz : over worked.
Grand Madame : Long LAYOFF by racing standards and then to top it a race for a 3 year old over 2200 is something I cant relate to.
Spark of Elegance ; rarely have i come across off springs of Warrshan tried over this distance.Well it seems that the Trainer and Owner are confident of its capabilities.
Double Elite : gift race was not utilized in previous outing.Change of Jockey is not going to bring out change in fortune.
Thunders Roar : Suraj Narredu weighs 50 kgs and hence choice of Jockey is a mystery as Jagadesh struggles even in Mysore.

Choice is : Eat favorite let anyone WIN.

Diego Rivera : the presence of Owners and previous effort may lead to this horse being fancied but at this distance iam not convinced.SORRY.
Splendid Surprise : Tracking extremely well but again a Mile would have been preferred though It can do well over furlongs also.
Brahmaputra : should have been retained at Delhi.not here.
Badge of Gold : failed favorite when carrying 63 kgs , the lower handicap can help the Horse to some extent.
Wonder Smile : very very difficult.
Woman on Top : Can compensate for TOMSK.However the bad draw could affect its chances.
Coral Gables :8 year old competing against some youngsters of repute.
Rhapdision Snow : last run was very bad but that can be explained by the rains and underfot conditions .Is a one paced Horse.
Elusive Study : was full of running in Dancing Highness race , choice of Jockey is deceptive.My choice for PLACE.
Romantic Getaway :unplaced for ONE YEAR even in Mysore and Kolkatta yet came with a flourish carrying top weight to finish a commendable 2 nd to LION HEART.Positive change of equipment seen but CONSISTENCY is the main factor to be considered.Not here.
Jet Fire : B Paswan ????

Choice is : Elusive Study place.Badge of Gold each way.


bad race

Powerful Dreams : 1400 , 62.5 kgs top weight is negative any day irrespective of the quality of opposition.
Dam GOOD : at best 3 rd.
Appertain :
Odds are for the WEIGHT.Can repeat.
Badda Rupaiyya :
after the super effort through Gnaneshwar now entrusted to Bhagawat .Intention is to bring down the handicap .May not even place over the next 5/6 months.
Hidalgo :
Ran last week.If you had seen some potential then take a chance.
Illusive Girl :
not again.
Shisham :
Ghatala and Shinde have been taking punters on a merry go round.

Choice is : Damgood Place.


Vb race but Whisper Valley looks good and can WIN.
Couelle
can Place as most runners have no inclination to run on merits going by choice of jockeys.


Refresh : Could have picked a race in class 3 easily,Demoted hastily .No chance at 62 kilos.
South Paradise : tracking well but again top weight .Will place for sure.
Star News :belated effort in Kandiate race.Ring prices will give some indication.
Anoosheek : not here.
Dantes Peak : 4 Year old making debut.


Choice is : South Paradise each way.



Place bets :

Jersey Rock , Asiaticus , Ahira , Elusive Study , Damgood , South Paradise.

Likely Winners :

Whisper Valley , Star News , Excellent Ability and Woman on Top.


Negative :

Abs fabs , On a Roll , Grand Madame , Trafalgar Square.


Good day ,

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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.

We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.


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An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.


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