Hi all ,
Here are my choices for the day ;
1.Man United / Musical Paradise / Desire to Dazzle.
It is a close finish between the first 2 named Horses.The more experienced of the Two gets the nod.Desire to dazzle dragged the rider to Finish a good 2 nd earlier.Subsequent to that the Horse has not been seen in the tracks.Related to Talk of the Devil which has been performing consistently in Class I in Bangalore.Jockey merit may not be good enough for WIN but place bet should be profitable as the only other Horse to be beaten is Integer.
2.Quiet Achiever / Royal Zen / Flying Jet.
VB Race so dont expect any logic in the Choice.
3.This race is too complicated and picking as Most horses have a chance to score except for Stylish Bay and Panchakshari.Strong Minded is a late finisher and hence omitted.May need 1400 to prove its mettle.Southerner is a promotee and has beaten some pretty ordinary Horses on the way UP.So can be ignored for WIN.
Of the rest Colonel Duff and Mangalya Prarambh are both likely to be fancied on account of the previous run and Jockey Merit.I would opt for Colonel Duff and a small chance on Silken Care.
4.Lester , Sun Device , So Much More.
Horses 3/6/7/8 have no chance whatsoever to even Place.Of the rest I have ignored Black Mischief being the debut RUN.The rest should all place.
Lester should be considered as the Days Best Betting Proposition.However the Odds would decide on whether We can have a positive Bet.
5.Ever So Clever , Superior Surprise , Double Elite ( Agassiz )
Ever so Clever has been having some easy races without being extended.Has the best chance to Score over this distance.
Superior Surprise will Definitely PLACE.
Agassiz or Double Elite for the 3 rd Spot.
I would avoid Bold Reply and El Gordo .
6.
Own Voice / Kiara / rare and Precious.
KIARA : Has done nothing wrong till date.No track work since last run.However has been exercised through Swimming classes.One negative factor against this filly is that it is running for the 3 rd time this season and my view is that the Horse may be tired.Avoid a Winning BET.
Own Voice : Classically bred and hacked the opposition in the last 2 outings.
Had finished a good 2nd to Kiara in Mumbai earlier.WILL SURELY PLACE.
Rare and Precious : Owner was unlucky to lose out in in 2 races on saturday.Is also good enough to vie for Supremacy though KIARA seems unbeatable.
Mark of Gibralter : Sorry not here .
Sugar ray : Strong saddle support can help in Place.
Ice Breaker : First WIN itself was 2 weeks ago.Hence Not sure if would have regained some fitness
Others also ran.
7.SUAVE / Afghan / Ciampino
The Horse which can Upset is EASY.
bad race from betting point of view as many Horses are likely to be in contention.
8.Chief's Dream , Flaming Lamborgini and Aelenia.
Others are not all that impressive in the tracks.
Days Best : Lester
Double : Lester , Own Voice ,
Kainchi : Lester , Own Voice , Man United and Colonel Duff.
Place :Royal Zen , Silken Care , Ever so Clever , Rare and Precious , Suave and Chief's Dream.
Good day,
PS : Note for Own Voice preferred over Kiara
After the 4 Smashing Wins in Mumbai , KIARA was mentioned as the Sprinters Cup Winner.Having come down to bangalore it has done nothing wrong till date having picked up One race and finishing a credible 2 nd to the CLASSY Set Alight.Kiara's siblings includes Armanent who had WON class 1 Race in Mumbai and Easy the controvesial horse which had to shift stables after a riot in bangalore.
But i am having a relook based on these factors ;
Both Kiara and Own Voice have met each other twice in Mumbai and the former has the measure on both occassions.In the 2 nd race , Own Voice lost by a neck over 1000 mts though the Horse was better off on handicap by
2.5 kgs .Subsequently KIARA has picked up 2 races in Mumbai which proved its versatality.
Having come down to bangalore , KIARA beat a Mediocre set of rivals by a distance in a class 2 race .The timing was not all that good though this factor decided by the pace of the race. Kiara Won at level weights save the 2 nd placed Strong Minded who was conceding 2 kgs.Among the rest of the runners Script ur Destiny did pick up a race later.
Own Voice , whose illustrious siblings include Velvet Rope and Petronella ,
lost twice in mumbai to Kiara and was relocated to bangalore.It has picked up 2 races at Cramped odds but with better timings.It has WON a Class 3 Race conceding weight to the opposition.It won carrying 59 kgs.
Kiara has also picked up a race carrying 58.5 kilos in Mumbai but the relative Jockey merit is also a reason to be considered.If one were to compare Srinath and Alford the Former stands TALL and is considered as the Best rider in the country at TOP Handicap.Alford carries the tag of a easy rider with a laid back attitude.But this might not be the case in races which has a lot at stake.
This is the First outing for Own Voice with Srinath as earlier runs were with O o'donoghue and Prakash.That in itself indicates that the Trainer has felt the need to avail the services of a task master. With Rajendra the preferred Jockey of Kaira not around Alford has been has entrusted with Kiara.
Kiara has been seen only in Swimming tracks after the previous runs.Own voice has been maintaining fitness on the inner sand track.
This is Kiara's 9 th run since debut and this may prove to be its undoing.
At the end of the DAY , KIARA may still WIN and all these comments may have to be consigned to the dustbin.But as a Punter I would have to consider the risks associated with a BET and hence this short summary.
Some punters may find the ODDs of around .80 lucrative and GOOD LUCK TO THEM ALL but I am going to have a negative bet.Ice Breaker is well bred and can also do well though my preference is for OWN Voice.
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Sunday, July 6, 2008
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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
5 comments:
Dear Shyam
Very eleborated comments on kiara and own vision yes i was also thinking about the own vision after seaing the race it lokks like that kiara will another sprint race. IN the endi would like to say good work and awating another detail coments on next bigrace. Ravi Khana
Hi Ravi,
Detailed comments for the Main Race framed for the day is a viable option .If this is done for each race , then It would extend to a few pages.
Kiara proved to be the best today and the negative vibes from everyone contributed to the Doubling of the ODDS.
Well in any case it was not worth a negative bet at 1.40 and hence i had a positive bet on OWN Voice.Srinath was all at sea until the home bend ?
Good day,
Shyam
Hmm,
Disasterous day today, swami babu, hardly any winners for u except for Lester, I hope your technique will not flop else, it will cast doom on followers of you
Hi WC2007,
Time and again Swamy proved his worthiness with his system of pickigng winners, especially flukes, so whatever the result of yesterday take it as one-off day. Give the credit to his dedicated work,winter or summer, no tantrums, for me he is doing his level best to satisfy his followers, I and give him 99 marks any time.
wc2007,
stop refering to this blog, if thats the way you feel.
we are no magicians.
help is at hand if you so desire.
but concrete questions and discussions are the order of the day.
do you guys do some home work of your own or what ???????
you are anyways doomed, if you dont.
rb.
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