Due to some prior commitments I was unable to attend the first three races but having seen the Videos , i must Say Star Wave was impressive in the first race.Though i sounded negative on Star Wave after getting a feel of the Odds i just let the race pass.
Blink met a better horse and should pick up a race in Mysore.Others also ran.As expected both of Ghatala's Horses ran like dud's showing no signs of the previous good form.
I opted for a place Kainchi on Cassandra , Join the Party and Salsera due to my preoccupation.Kept in touch with the races and results through the Mobile.
Cart Wheel won WELL and may repeat in higher class if placed in a reasonably moderate set.Calming Influence's going off the was a bit of a shock .Join the party's effort was commendable.
As i was negative on Cart wheel as mentioned in the BLOG , ate this horse and backed Join the Party each way which reduced the Losses.
I had a clear view on Arktouros which was negative .This horse WON on debut at 40 to 1 ( i had backed then ) and subsequently has never repeated the performance.Why this was being fancied was a mystery just like Southern Empire.
So it was a GOOD negative bet for Me.
I backed Salsera each way as it had accounted for Star Presentation which was participating tin the DEBRY.I also liked Able Associate but could not bet as if one is not physically present it is difficult to get a feel of the races.
Salsera ran a great race but Could have WON if the Rider had opted for some more time before taking it to the front.This Horse will definitely make it to class 2 atleast.
Able Associate's had some siblings of repute and only the Sire Mr Mellon was a bit of a bother.
I cant see Arktouros doing well either in Pune or Bangalore unless Jockey is changed.Valiant bay's weight was a stopper and also not uch preparation.
TELEMACHHUS was a favorite for the wrong reasons as Stable Mate KAJURAHO had better credentials.Saner punter's would go by the earlier form and record and decide on the better option.Honestly Telemachhus coming 3 rd was also a BONUS as it had nothing in it.
Sheza Star was there for the odds .Coming after a long layoff and installed as Favorite is something one cant relate too and all the more if the Trainer's record is considered.
Kajuraho was kept in handy position throughout and ran well in the closing stages to easily account for the rest.Your Destiny should pick up a race shortly.Rest also RAN.
I did have 2 small place bets on Heroic Fantasy and Sayonara and it failed.
Could not EAT the JODI as there was some confusion on Telemachhus being withdrawn.Missed a good chance.
Schimitar was the wrong horse to be fancied particularly over this distance and having Flyjumped lost all chances at the gates.Swift FIRE won in an impressive manner and proved that the effort last time in finishing a close 3 rd was no Fluke.Owner had lined up a DOUBLE with the same Jockey later on in the day.
I ATE SCHIMITAR and backed Logans Run each way as it had participated with Schimitar earlier.Bad choice as the Horse has lost form completely.
Also had a Good each way bet on Red Mustang.Having seen Jamshed Appoo in the paddocks on Saturday , i had tipped this Horse though there was no TRACK activity for past 2 months.Did finish a credible 2 nd.
Fantabulous Prince a discarded horse ended 3 rd and this must have been the icing on the cake for the FOLLOWERS of the Favorite.
Ste Alight race I Backed Star Presentaion for shp and place and made some small change in the bargain.
Forget the rest of the runners including ARCHIPENKO.They may have to mmigrate to other centres to PICK up some races.
Incidently had taken a place kainchi on Red Mustang / Star Presentation / Royal Chief .TWO passed at good odds and the DOUBLE itself lead toPROFIT.
Was the most open race of the day and opening tote indication conveyed so.The Odds on the 8 runners were less than Rs 120 .Kandiate and BENNYthe BULL were the 2 horses WITH best Jockeys and were above 300 for WIN.Now this itself is an indication irrespective of the BOOKIE odds.Also Lightin Blues displayed place Rs 50 where as WIN itself was aroung 70.So ruled out the main fancied runners and opted for each way bet on FREE MASON.
Power Punch being the FIRST favorite on the TOTE offered above Rs 50 and ran on well from Start to end to provide the Double for the OWNER / Jockey. Free Mason was at the wrong end of the field throughout and came with a late burst to finish 2 nd.
Both LIGHTIN Blues and SCHIMITAR was ridden by SURAJ and both did not take a good JUMP.Any conclusions ???????
Had eaten Western Command earlier on in the day and backed it partly to reduce the losses.Gided Missile odds were not in sync , WIN 250 Place 120 thereby exposing intentions.Having seen Red Mustang placing earlier on in the day , took a small bet on EINSTEIN ( joint owner ) .I did see some backing in the TOTE.
The results proves my understanding that ONLY horses backed by the connexions end up in the final 3.The Horse was taken to the front and stayed there throughout.If the same set of runners run later on in the season with the same handicaps the result would be Different.had a loss on the WINNER but recovered through Einstein.However i did back Guided Missile which did not show any of the FORM shown earlier.
What was COMMON : Rider SURAJ ??
I had mentioned Stone of Destiny but odds in tote were negative.
Last race was a JOKE of gigantic Propotions.Atlantus was backed as if a LOSS was out of question.In the end it was withdrawn and provided ZIA Akthar a Win after a DECADE in the sidelines.This Horse was in the ODDS which in itself was a surprise.However one must admit that it was fancied in Regal Reform race and lost out ( not given a good ride ) for obvious reasons.
Took a chance eqach way bet on Zaois but with the Stahe managed race it was a Lost cause from the begining.
Lost out on the 3rd place Kainchi as only one Horse placed among Logans run / Power Punch / Zaois and Guided Missile.
End of Day : Small Profit but overall Good week end.
Not a very exciting day as i missed some races and that sort dampened my spirits.
Comments and feed back welcome.
SHYAM
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Monday, July 14, 2008
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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
3 comments:
Hope to get something extraordinary
on Mysore race days.
Good Reasons For placing bets on the horses after seeing the Tote dividends.But in Mumbai Totes are not THAT indicative.(For OFF-Course Centers)And Is it the opening tote odds that is indicative or any other time? Cause many times whatever horse is betted in the Ring,itis reflected in the Tote betting also.
Smartnspecial.
This is Club and location specific and it would not be wise to follow the same in other centres.
I always refer to opening odds in TOTE.The odds drift later but the indication is there for all to see in those first 5-10 minutes.
Most Horses from Trainers like Ghatala Darius and Ganapathy if installed as favorite would never reflect more than Rs 12 for place initially if on JOB.When not on job the PLACE Dividend would exceed the WIN Dividends.
Does not apply to most trainers.
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