Hi Folks,
Aurora Arealis looks superior amongst the 4year olds as in RNo.183 giving 5kgs it has beaten Successor and in that race it was throughout ahead. Again though Ekhabinskya has beaten Successor in RNo.242 one should remember that Successor was giving 4kgs. To-day on level weights Successor comes marginally better. Hence Vinayak's yard Aurora Aurealis appears to have a distinct edge over his nearest two 4year old rivals Successor and Ekhabinskya and should not find it difficult to win The P.D. Hadow Trophy for horses in Class II the main attraction in a card of nine races. Enceladus is a live force here.It has not been tried in Mumbai and inspite of that has managed to finish close to the field. Also note another horse i.e. The Rising which has been tracking superbly and will fight for the minor placings along with Encleladus, Successor and Ekhabinskya. River Rule in its last run at Mumbai came with flourish from 6th position at the bend moving fast and just lost at the post to Semper Eadem which subsequently won at Bangalore recently quite easily should make amends in the Majestic Eagle Trophy, the supporting event of the races to be held to-day. My remaining speed ratings for the day are as follows:
Race No. 1:
Upnorth 601
Forest Native 591
Eternal Flight 5897
Chief Warrior 585
Salawato 584
Golden Eagle 575
Race No. 2:
River Tern 653
Secret Talk 640
Dangerous Belle 612
Paper King 604
Above All 597
Zippty Zip 593
Race No. 3:
Phosphor 674
Classic Rule 666
American Idol 655
Devilitto 654
HighlandMusic 634
True Elegance 631
Highland Vision 631
Race No. 4:
Step By Step 635
Expensive Affair 626
Lyrical Lass 618
Refuse To Bend 609
Cloud Cover 606
Race No. 5
Sea Treasure 680
Secret Glory 679
El Bunduq 665Marine Zone 655
Race No. 6:
AURORA AUREALIS 701
Enceladus 682
Successor 679
Ekhabinskya 674
The Rising 655
Race No. 7:
River Rule 670
Glorious Miss
Moon Flower 665
Feona 636
Great White 612
Race No. 8:
Cameo 689
Pretty Commission 673
Flaming Arrow 672
Highland Bounty 660
Sierra Vista 659
Race No. 9:
Tyumen 633
Polar Glow 628
Tromos 625
Chotee Begum 622
Solor 619
La Joie De Vie 615
Day's Best : AURORA AUREALIS
Good kainchi w/pl : Aurora Aurealis, River Rule and Cameo
Good luck to all,
Thanking you,
Jimmy
Posts
6 comments:
Jimmy
great show buddy,
thanks for cameo and the last race fav is laid
ratings are doing fine,keep going man
a request, earlier posting will help lot.say around 10 to 11 am on the racing day
cheers
easwaran
bangalroe
Mallesh had definitely pulled this A A any amateur can tell this by seeing the video.
Hi Folks,
Well I was confident about Enceladus performing well but was scared of the theory which till to-date was striking i.e. RNo.6-HNo.1. Now the other day also same theory came at Bangalore. Also the moment Successor was withdrawn I put Action Plan No.2 i.e. if a horse is withdrawn favourite for the race seldom wins and I immediately ran to cover my bet by eating the favourite. In the meantime I had played Enceladus as place as per my views. But seldom both theories come into action in the same race. Anyway hope you all played Cameo as the other day Escravos won easily and my track boy had mentioned that Cameo was moving excellently in morning trials while getting the better of Escravos. Hope to give you still better results as the season progresses. But no one can beat Mallesh on a favourite.
Hi Folks,
Well regarding the favourites which fail, it is very clear from my views i.e. as when they do not appear in the first place in all likelyhood chances of failing are bright. Similar is the case with Jodis. Hence watch out for it and swallow it confidently. But at times I may be proved wrong also. So one should use their own thinking on the spot and act.
Good ratings Jimmy, keep it up.
Regarding your mention of the racing theory that favourite generally loses if a runner is declared non-starter, I wish to say that it is NOT just pure co-incidence. There is a whole science, with impeccable mathematical formulas based on Bayes' Law, named after Reverend Thomas Bayes who invented it in the 18th century.
The formula was discovered (written in Bayes' own handwriting) after his death when a friend tried to put in order Bayes' house (Rev Bayes was of course a bachelor) among his papers. Himself a mathematician, the friend was shocked by what he saw and sent it to the Royal Society).
The law (and its mathematical proof) is somewhat difficult to understand even for professional mathematicians, but not impossible. I fancy myself as endowed with decent math ability, but I needed close to a month to grasp the proof! But once you get the hang of it, it can do wonders for your understanding of a lot of things from our world, and definitely from the world of medicine (diagnostics) & gambling (probability & odds) in particular.
The greatest application of Bayes Law in recent times that a common man can easily understand (and appreciate) is the sudden reduction in SPAM messages in our e-mail account in recent years. You will remember about 10 years ago in the days of Hotmail, it was very difficult to filter out spam and we would get too many mails in our inbox. But in recent years (especially after google and gmail came onto the scene), we hardly have any spam in inbox and most of it is very intelligently sent to the SPAM folder. How did they do it? Simple. They started using an algorithm that uses Bayes Law to predict if a mail is SPAM or not, and the mighty accuracy of Bayes Law ensures that the results are 99.99% right!
For a long time I have planned to write an article on Bayes Law and its implications for gamblers, but either haven't found time or don't know how to simplify it for the general gambler. Maybe I will do it one day on my blog, and hope it will be sooner than later.
Prakash Gosavi
Mallesh is a wonderful rider,
he is a savior of bookies,
keep laying him if his mount is fav
enjoy the fun, this big man will help you in earning your days share
love
easwaran
india
Post a Comment