Monday, June 28, 2010

STRATEGY

Lets take as a glaring example Race 3 of 27.6.2010., Bangalore
 
 
No 5 Sweet performer gets backed and let us assume that the connections must have played Rs 1.0 lakh at 3 to 1.
 
The horse gets backed to "Even" money and then the connections must have eaten Rs 2.0 lakh.
 
The connections make money whether the horse wins or looses.They stand to get Rs 1.0 lakh
 
Let us look at the Bookie scenario.He knows that the connections have eaten Rs 2.0 lakhs but does not increase the odds more than "Even" .Why? He needs the punters to play in the horse in the belief that it has been backed down heavily so that he is able to pay the connections 1 lakh and also make some money.
 
What do they do?They back the other horses which has a chance to win and continue to eat the favourite at "Even".The winner was heavily backed in place as the win odds were 20 to 1 but the place odds were only 2 to 1.
 
Celestina gets backed heavily in both win and place as The Darling Boy was already out of contention.
 
It was unfortunate that they could not make a double killing as " Celestina" bled during the race.It was however compensated by way of " Balas Glory" winning as there were very very limited fancy bets on this horse.
 
This is what is called Strategy.
 
This happens everyday.
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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.

We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.


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An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.


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