Though this is a special day , from the looks of it , do expect atleast 3 well backed Horses runners to oblige in the small card of 7 Events.
1.1.Saarah : has been brought down on handicap and is poised to strike.If you go by the past record of the runners ,the most striking aspect is most of these 8 runners are winners in 00 - 30 Class ( VB ) but for SAARAH and LONE Trojan.Going by this factor the race could be between these 2 Horses only.
1.4.Secret Pilgrim : Last outing the Horse lost out in the betting itself and it was clear that tghe run was not genuine.Has the class but having been a Non Winner since debut i would hesitate on a Winning Bet.
1.7.Lone Trojan : is tracking well and after the change of Ownership and positive switch in Jockey can do well on this special day.This 8 furlong race is ideally suited for this progeny of Tirol.
1.3.Socaroro :Flashed on late to finish a good 3 rd to the highly rated Spirituall.But for the Jockey , I would have given this Horse a chance.
2.4.Game of Power : Enquiry ON ?? and also entrusted to the most unreliable jockey in western india.AVOID.
2.4.Lightning Bolt : Jockey ; Irani Trainer : Antia and Owner : Ismail gave some funny and illogical explanations to the Stewards for the Poor performance in the lst outing.So uncertainity is written all over this Lightning bolt.
Many of Antia's fancied runners did not do well ( not allowed to perform to its actual merits ) on SUNDAY.Can do well in this relatively poor bunch.
2.7.Home to Home : Did not oblige when fancied in last outing.Though lightning bolt finished ahead of this Horse last time , i expect Home to Home to FINISH ahead this time.
2.8.Arabian Speed : performs on and off , depending on the jockey declared to ride.Has a decent chance to Place considering that small time trainers do well on SPECIAL days and also keeping in mind the fact that the season is drawing to a close.
3.1.Raquel : had the class to hack the field.Was given a very very bad ride last time out by rajendra as the Horse lost by the shortest of margins to rank outsider Appreciate.Negatives are , Owner has the largest number of Failed favorites in Bnagalore and Mumbai as a % to the number of Horses Owned and in the fray.Also at 70 paisa or less It is not worth a bet.
3.2.War of Attrition : Owner is a Hook up specialist.As jockey declared to ride is pending , One cant decide on the merits of this Horse.
3.3.Cosmic Flower : Ran like a dud over 1000 mts after Winning a 1200 mts Race.The Horse would relish the extra distance and has a Good chance to score.( Punters who dont hate Riyaz can definitely take a chance)
3.5.Tigresse Noire : 7 horse race , so only 2 place payment.Is a genuine Long shot.
4.1.Forest Music : I usually avoid the offsprings of Mr Mellon for Mumbai races.
4.3 Zen : Keep an eye. was in the front bunch in previous outing.
4.5.Katania : credibilty of the Jockey ??? But is well bred .Can strike.
4.7.Musical Rhythm : has competed with superior horses.No recent track work seen but should PLACE easily.
4.6.Lilac Time : Pereira can do better than the Worst jockey in India , R Shelar who has been doing duty for most of Trainer IVOR's horses.On that count alone a Place Bet should be profitable.
5.1.River Dancer : Weight / Jockey negative.Cant place.
5.2.Firefoot : Jockey not yet declared.Better to avoid.Last Win was mainly on account of JOCKEY merit.
5.3.Flames of Fire : Is speedy and can upset.If Lightning Bolt does well in the 2 nd race , Flames of Fire would definitely place.
5.4.Appreciate : Speedy horse.Will either WIN or go off the board.Is a promotee.
5.5.Oyster Gem : was unlucky to lose to Siroco in race 222.Should be given another chance.
6.1.Absolute Reality : May place.
6.2.Cavaradosi : Was finishing on well in Flaming Ace race.Can do well with Mallesh in the saddle.
6.4.Sir TAJ : WILL Be in the First TWO Standings.
7.2.Tullamore : Riyaz Shaikh ????
7.4.Quaoar : A win bet over 1400 mts is risky.May at best come 3 rd.
7.5.Mustang Sally : Place seems CERTAIN.
7.6.Princess Samerah : i Shaikh is there for the ODDS.This Filly is the best bred amongst the runners and should do well.]
7.7.Northern Prince : DUD but capable of doing well in this set .May place.
Good Bets for the Day ( all each way ) Saarah , Home to Home , Tigresse Noire , Musical Rhythm , Sir Taj and Princess Samerah.
Horses likely to be fancied : Raquel and Cavaradosi ( First named can be eaten if the odds are 70 paisa and less , Second named can Place not WIN , so a good negative WIN bet if the odds are reasonable )
Good day,
Different Perspectives
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With Respect to speculative investment our selections are based on a scientific rationale with understanding of the "HUMAN FACTOR" intervention.
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With Respect to speculative investment our selections are based on a scientific rationale with understanding of the "HUMAN FACTOR" intervention.
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Friday, April 4, 2008
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The author does calculations based on certain mathematical theories which have been formulated with experience.
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
We cannot be winners everyday.It is important that we have a budget and play exactly as per a plan so that even during periods when the "LADY LUCK" deserts us, we still do not end up loosing a lot of money."LADY LUCK" does favour everybody at some point of time and we make returns at that time.
Mathematics by itself does not work whenever human involvement is there.
An analysis is also made on the possibilities whch exist for the Owner,Jockey & Trainer and a reasonable surmise is made.
The blog can be accessed by all and no invitation is necessary
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